Micron Locks In Historically High Memory Prices For Five Years
5 93Micron has signed 16 "strategic customer agreements" (SCAs) that include a floor price the company says comes with "a very robust gross margin for Micron, well above our peak quarterly margins in any past cycle." Most of the deals run through 2030 and cover about 40% of Micron's revenue. The Register reports: Micron CEO, president and chairman Sanjay Mehrotra explained the SCAs in prepared remarks delivered during the company's Q3 earnings call. He explained that Micron has signed 16 SCAs, most of them covering 2026 to 2030, and that they involve a commitment to buy a certain quantity of product and pay for it in a pricing band that has a floor and a ceiling price. The floor price covers the historically high gross margins mentioned above, and the ceiling price means those who commit to an SCA are insulated if memory prices go even higher.
The CEO said 16 customers have signed SCAs and then explained why it's worth locking into the deals even though they bake in such high margins. "Our customers are recognizing that supply shortages in memory and storage will take considerable time to improve," he said. "Even as we expect industry supply to improve gradually in 2028, we currently do not have line of sight as to when memory supply will be able to catch up with increasing demand."
Even massive efforts to build new chip fabs aren't much help, he said, because the increasing complexity of new memory types means it takes longer to build factories -- and when they come online there still won't be enough capacity to build both the high-bandwidth memory needed for AI and other types of NAND and DRAM. "Supply is structurally constrained in its growth and ability to meet industry demand, despite our comprehensive efforts to increase supply," he said.
Don't assume that SCAs mean your suppliers get price certainty, because Mehrotra said the deals will account for 40 percent of Micron revenue -- meaning the company is reserving most of its inventory to sell at prices it can negotiate. The CEO did have a little good news in the form of predictions that Micron's DRAM output in 2026 will "grow in the low- to mid-20s percentage range, slightly above our prior outlook." He also revealed that the SCAs see customers pay up front, which helps Micron to fund its fab expansions.
5 comments
Raping users is back on the menu, boys! (Score: 5, Insightful)
by JustAnotherOldGuy ( 4145623 ) on Thursday June 25, 2026 @12:05PM (#66210170)
"Raping users is back on the menu, boys! Now get out there and change all the prices!"
Re:Raping users is back on the menu, boys! (Score: 5, Informative)
by sabbede ( 2678435 ) on Thursday June 25, 2026 @02:03PM (#66210454)
Prices are high because demand is exceeding supply. If the supply increases, the price will decrease. That's basic economics.
That said, the fab would not have been completed yet, (this just happened a few weeks ago), so no, prices would not be lower today. Expanding supply remains necessary regardless, but 10 people denied everyone else the benefits, because they had a bug in their ass. And, quite possibly, Chinese funding.
I'd appreciate it if you backed off on the patronizing "summer child" tone. Economics doesn't care.
Re:Raping users is back on the menu, boys! (Score: 5, Informative)
by almitydave ( 2452422 ) on Thursday June 25, 2026 @02:30PM (#66210572)
Prices are high because demand is exceeding supply. If the supply increases, the price will decrease. That's basic economics.
That might be true if both prices and supply weren't artificially fixed by a cartel [wikipedia.org]. Note that there are even fewer major DRAM manufacturers now than there were then, so it's much easier to ensure everyone's in on the collusion. See also Gamer's Nexus [youtube.com] coverage.
No lessons were learned from the last time. The Samsung manager that went to prison got a promotion after being released. This Micron deal is absolutely them holding their customers over a barrel using limited supply to demand locked-in price deals. If you don't sign up, you go to the back of the line. "It'd be a shame if you couldn't buy RAM for that device you're making."
I feel like this signals something. (Score: 5, Interesting)
by nightflameauto ( 6607976 ) on Thursday June 25, 2026 @01:14PM (#66210346)
If a company is announcing that they've locked 16 bigger customers into historically high pricing, while locking themselves out of rising to meet future potential prices, is that a signal that we've about hit the peak of the memory demand / high-price cycle? Something tells me if they went out of their way to get these price floors in place, someone in the company saw the potential for that floor to be pierced in the next few months. I mean, you'd think the signing companies would consider this possibility too, but it's entirely possible that FOMO on AI is keeping them at the peak of the wave during negotiations.
Something about this situation just strikes me as a tell. Maybe I'm wrong, but it seems like it's a predictor of something changing.
Micron boasts about price-fixing, loudly (Score: 5, Insightful)
by ebunga ( 95613 ) on Thursday June 25, 2026 @03:04PM (#66210674)
What's old is new again.