The US Is Flirting With Its First-Ever Population Decline
15 338The U.S., whose population the Census Bureau did not expect to start shrinking until 2081, may record its first-ever decline as early as this year because of the Trump administration's accelerating immigration crackdown. Census data released in late January showed US population growth slowed to just 0.5% in the year prior to July 2025 -- the lowest rate since the pandemic -- as net migration fell to 1.3 million from a peak of 2.7 million the year before.
Census experts now expect net migration to drop to only 316,000 in the year prior to July 2026 and say the country is "trending toward negative net migration." A joint study by researchers at the American Enterprise Institute and the Brookings Institution estimates that 2026 net immigration could range from a gain of 185,000 to a loss of 925,000. Births exceeded deaths by just 519,000 in the most recent period, a surplus the Congressional Budget Office expects to vanish by 2030. At the low end of the AEI/Brookings range, the overall US population would shrink by more than 400,000 -- something that has never happened since the country began taking censuses in 1790.
15 comments
Re: No Shit! (Score: 5, Insightful)
by Waffle Iron ( 339739 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:20PM (#65980630)
Hey genius, President Obama deported more than Trump has. But don't let facts get in the way of your TDS meltdown.
And somehow he managed to achieve that without all the drama.
Re: No Shit! (Score: 5, Interesting)
by Waffle Iron ( 339739 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:30PM (#65980656)
There are always special interest groups who are highly concerned about various government policies and actions. That's normal.
The drama I'm talking about here is dragging the entire country to the verge of a civil war, all while failing even to match Obama's performance on this key MAGA goal.
Re: No Shit! (Score: 5, Insightful)
by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:46PM (#65980734)
No, the press did cover it. I remember it distinctly, including complaints from the left wing of the Democratic party.
The difference was that the Obama administration did it in an orderly manner and followed due process rather than sending a bunch of masked clowns into a city he didn't like and start rounding up anybody with an accent. There was no media circus because ICE was behaving like normal police and wasn't killing people in the process.
This was also the time when Republicans were pretending that they would agree to comprehensive immigration reform if given sufficient border security. You had politicians like Ted Cruz sign onto bills that had a path to citizenship for the undocumented. The thought was that if we could aggressively deport the actual criminal migrants, then maybe we could get agreement to let others stay. The problem was that calls for "border security" before compressive reform were never in good faith. Despite their insistence otherwise, it's clear under the Trump administration that Republicans never supported "legal immigration" or any immigration at all (well, unless the immigrants have $5 million to drop on a "gold card").
Re: No Shit! (Score: 5, Insightful)
by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @03:25PM (#65980898)
Yeah, I must have totally forgotten about the time Obama sent masked agents to go door-to-door looking for anybody with an accent.
Here's the key difference: Obama's policies were bad if you were an immigrant or an immigrant friend/family member. Trump's policies impact everyone in their path because they effectively suspend the 4th amendment for everyone regardless of citizenship (not to mention the thread of summary execution for exercising the 2nd and arrest for exercising the 1st).
Re: No Shit! (Score: 5, Insightful)
by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @05:31PM (#65981228)
No, nobody is saying it was ever "fine." Nobody is saying that ICE was never problematic or abusive. It's just that those abuses were much more localized and targeted. There is a material difference between what is happening now and what happened 15 years ago. It's not unreasonable that the current behavior of ICE is causing a far greater uproar than in the past. and it's not some sort of unthinking reflexive reaction to the "Orange man."
ICE gotten to the point that it's much bigger than immigration or the border. What ICE has become means that all constitutional protections are suspect. What is the 4th amendment good for in ANY context if the government can just claim it broke down your door to look for an immigrant? What good is the 2nd amendment if concealed carry means a federal officer can just shoot you and claim immunity if you are carrying a firearm? What good is the 1st amendment if reporting on a protest can get you arrested?
Re: No Shit! (Score: 5, Insightful)
by drinkypoo ( 153816 ) on <drink@hyperlogos.org> on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @03:10PM (#65980842)
The press covered it. I read several articles on it at the time so I cannot be gaslit by your clown ass.
Re: No Shit! (Score: 5, Insightful)
by nealric ( 3647765 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:48PM (#65980748)
Yes, people did give a shit when Democrats were in office, and in fact protested about it. However, one HUGE difference is that the Obama administration had no policy of family separation. 5-year-olds were not rounded up alone or used as bait for their parents. Family detention was used when families came as groups to the border- the Obama administration wasn't snatching kids off the streets of American cities.
Re:+1 Informative (Score: 5, Insightful)
by haruchai ( 17472 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @06:21PM (#65981314)
to quote you that's "bullshit, bullshit & more bullshit".
ICE is specifically acting like thugs in Blue cities because that's what Trump, Miller, etc want, to provoke a violent reaction as a pretext to invoke the Insurrection Act and to normalize using government thugs for enforcement and intimidation which they'll ramp up for the midterms to "true to vote"
Re: +1 Informative (Score: 5, Insightful)
by ScienceBard ( 4995157 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @08:06PM (#65981462)
Texas has had the most ICE arrests under many presidents because its an easy place for immigrants to both cross the border and surrender, and many border crossers just dont go further. The high statistic is just border apprehensions. There arent masked ICE agents in Texas urban areas en mass running cars off the road, teargassing, beating, and murdering people. The comparison is bullshit.
Comically Trumps goons accused Minnesota law enforcement of not cooperating with ICE detainers and the local law enforcement provided receipts that it just wasn't true. The "non cooperation" is just made up. People there are up in arms about the blatant constitutional violations and harassment. The cops were openly supportive of ICE up until the murders, and subsequent harassment by ICE of off duty MN cops.
Minnesota has one of the smallest illegal immigrant populations in the nation. Do you know how badly you need to want to be here to leave someplace tropical and end up in Minnesota? There is literally no mathematical or logical justification for what is happening, other than an attempt to make an example of a political opponent. Its intimidation by a thug, nothing more. Glad to see Minnesota give those assholes a rash.
Horse shit (Score: 5, Insightful)
by abulafia ( 7826 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @06:37PM (#65981342)
Your gaslighting would be more convincing if the Trump regime were not offering to stop the intimidation campaign if Minnesota hands over their voter rolls.
Because that makes the game rather obvious, does it not? Submit and help throw the election or the pain continues.
Sorry dude, you are so full of shit simple googling refutes you and your fucked up projection about what you think happened.
Many of us are making sure there is ample documentation of this period. The Good Germans of this period are not going to be able to slink away.
Re:Horse shit (Score: 5, Insightful)
by test321 ( 8891681 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @08:29PM (#65981496)
I'm from one of those many countries that require an ID to vote. The difference is national IDs get handed automatically (I got mine at 12 y.o.), in some places IDs get handed at birth. People get registered automatically to vote and receive any additional documentation by post (for places that use paper cards), or can check online their voting location. So everybody has the needed documentation years in advance. It's designed to work smoothly.
If any change in legislation happens, such as changes in the voter registration procedure, it goes through procedures early in a legislature, such that it enters force at least one full year before next elections, so people can adapt and administrations can launch the needed communications campaigns. There are people paid to assist older or illiterate people with procedures, and for big changes I would expect door to door communication.
If your country suddenly require IDs to vote: how long did you give electors to adapt, what communication campaigns were organised, what practical help did you provide, and how did you ensure everyone would get their documents on time for vote? This is not about making favours to some people; a detailed implementation plan for a significant change in legislation is only good governance.
Re:Meanwhile (Score: 5, Insightful)
by WolfgangVL ( 3494585 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:20PM (#65980632)
Make it even higher than that- or remove the cap all together. What's the big idea giving those who don't need it a pass anyway? Something is going to have to change.
SS is the carrot that keeps us all quietly working. You want to start a revolution? End SS.
Endless growth is impossible (Score: 5, Insightful)
by MpVpRb ( 1423381 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:19PM (#65980618)
This is so obvious that it seems to need no explanation, yet the entire science of economics is based on the fantasy of endless growth
We need steady-state sustainability
There is a chance that population decline along with increased use of automation might balance out
Right?! How is zero growth bad? (Score: 5, Insightful)
by XopherMV ( 575514 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:29PM (#65980654)
Damn near every one of the problems we face as a society are made worse by adding extra population. Housing prices are up because we've got too many people. Inflation is up because all those people are competing for the same products. Pollution is up because all those people generate trash and drive cars and heat their homes with fossil fuels. Medical costs are up because we need more nurses and doctors to care for all the additional people.
Re:Lol (Score: 5, Insightful)
by WolfgangVL ( 3494585 ) on Tuesday February 10, 2026 @02:15PM (#65980604)
No, they'll still get care- they'll just pay for it with the fortune that only an entire lifetime of easy economic opportunity brings. They spent their whole lives building the very system that's going to suck them dry. There might have been some help to take some of the pressure of, but as a voting bloc, they reliably voted against it every chance they had.
End of life care is now basically built specifically to extract all of the wealth from the boomer generation. When they're gone things are going to drastically change because the math wont work- the rest of us don't have even close to the resources they've managed to accrue.